NHL : My Canadien is rich in a loonie world.

The Hockey News predicted the Canadiens would not come close to playing the NHL playoffs.

Forbes magazine is much more optimistic, at least for the financial playoffs : the Canadien should be a shoe-in with a 283 US$ value, which puts him in 4th position among the thirty NHL teams.

Even better, the team value, calculated in US$, has increased by a staggering 23% in one year. If only the club on ice performance had improved by half that percentage.

Great news, indeed, which « La presse » was quick to print in bold ink : « fourth position », « 23% ».

The article nevertheless mentioned the Canadian dollar had appreciated by 28% versus the US since January 1.

So that, as expressed in loonies, the Canadien valuation actually decreased by 5% in one year ?

A much less impressive figure, but more in line with some of the team's games.

Admittedly, a good chunk of the loonie appreciation versus the US$ has happened in the past few weeks, probably after Forbes completed its research.

If Forbes evaluations were based on an exchange rate which showed a 15-20% appreciation in the Canadian dollar versus the greenback, then the value of the Canadien increased by a 3-8% range in local currency, which seems more realistic : the result of higher ticket prices in Canadian dollars and lower costs, as players' salaries are paid in US$.

Not surprisingly, the value of most Canadian teams expressed in US$ jumped over the past year : +24% for the Maple Leafs, +17% for the Senators, +21% for the Flames...

More surprising are the mediocre performances by the Canucks (+10%) and the Oilers (+8%) : in Canadian dollars, the value of these two teams would have plunged during the past twelve months.

Why ? No idea, but if two out of its eight Canadian teams are presently struggling, the NHL is truly in bad shape.

On the American side, some value increases are all the more impressive as they have nothing to do with a currency gain :

.Anaheim : +25% : have ticket prices doubled since the Stanley Cup win ?
.New Jersey : +31% : the new arena impact ?
.New York Rangers : +19% : the Drury and Gomez off -if not on, yet- effect ?

It would be worth studying the detailed figures behind the Forbes valuations : on their own, they make little sense, or at least explain nothing.

The Maple Leafs position at the top of the value ladder (412 US$ million) seems to indicate on ice performance does not matter for a team in a major hockey market.

The Anaheim jump in value seems to indicate exactly the opposite.

What of Vancouver ? The team improved, the value fell... Competition from other sports? Decreased attendance?

What of Nashville ? The team is the cheapest of the thirty at 143 US$ million, but still appears overpriced at it keeps bleeding red ink.

RIM Jim Balsilie was nevertheless ready to buy it for 225 US$ million -and, according to reports, promptly move it to Hamilton- and local businessmen, it appears, are about to acquire it for about 175 US$ million.

Do the new owners plan to recoup their investment by accumulating losses ? Apparently, they bet on a future increase in the team media rights.

Good luck, considering the NHL US TV ratings.

Could Forbes valuations based on hard figures or wishful thinking, like some Canadien fans Stanley Cup dreams ?

Or is it that the NHL teams are a mixed bag of cash cows and dancing girls for their owners ?